Tampa Bay Real Estate Market Report 2025

by Frank Rogers

Tampa Bay Real Estate Market Report 2025

Year-End Snapshot (January–November 2025)

What Buyers, Sellers, and Investors Need to Know

The Tampa Bay real estate market didn’t crash in 2025 — it normalized.

After years of rapid appreciation, bidding wars, and limited inventory, 2025 marked a shift toward a more balanced environment. Inventory increased, buyers gained leverage, and sellers had to be far more intentional with pricing and presentation.

This report summarizes the most recent publicly available, MLS-reported data through November 2025. Official December and full-year reports are typically released by Florida Realtors in mid-January.

Tampa Bay Market Overview (Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA)

November 2025 Snapshot (Single-Family Homes)

Closed sales: ~2,590 (slightly up year-over-year)
Median sale price: ~$399,900 (down year-over-year)
Active inventory: ~11,200 homes available
Months of supply: ~4.4 months
Median time to contract: ~61 days

What this means:

Inventory increased meaningfully compared to prior years, pushing Tampa Bay closer to a balanced market. Homes are taking longer to sell, and buyers are no longer forced into rushed decisions.

County-Level Breakdown

Hillsborough County

Median sale price (Nov 2025): ~$418,875
Active listings: ~4,100
Months of supply: ~3.3 months

Hillsborough remains one of the tighter counties in the Tampa Bay area, but sellers can no longer rely on demand alone. Pricing correctly from day one is critical.

Pinellas County

Median sale price (Nov 2025): ~$440,000
Active listings: ~3,400
Months of supply: ~3.9 months
Median time to contract: ~47 days

Pinellas saw higher inventory and modest price softening in 2025, but desirable locations — especially coastal and walkable areas — continued to perform well when priced properly.

Pasco County

Median sale price (Nov 2025): ~$380,000
Active listings: ~2,900
Months of supply: ~3.5 months
Median time to contract: ~80+ days

Pasco remained one of the more payment-sensitive markets. Homes that were priced aggressively or needed updates often sat longer, while well-positioned listings still moved.

Mortgage Rates & Affordability

Mortgage rates remained the biggest constraint on affordability throughout 2025. After peaking above 7% earlier in the cycle, rates trended lower toward the end of the year.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (late 2025): ~6.1–6.3%

Even small rate changes significantly impact monthly payments, which is why buyers in 2025 became more selective and more negotiation-focused.

What 2025 Meant for Buyers

Buyers gained leverage in 2025:

More inventory created more choice
Fewer bidding wars reduced pressure
Negotiations (credits, repairs, concessions) became more common

That said, well-priced, move-in-ready homes in strong locations still attracted serious interest.

What 2025 Meant for Sellers

The biggest shift for sellers was competition.

Homes that sold successfully in 2025 typically shared three traits:

Correct pricing from day one
Strong presentation (condition, photos, staging, marketing)
A clear strategy for the first 14 days on market

Overpriced homes tended to sit — and sitting often led to price reductions.

Looking Ahead to 2026

As we move into 2026, the market appears positioned to remain:

More balanced than the 2021–2023 era
Highly location-specific
Sensitive to interest rate movement

Strategy, not speculation, will continue to separate successful buyers and sellers from frustrated ones.

Want a Hyper-Local Market Breakdown?

Tampa Bay averages only tell part of the story. Neighborhood-level data often paints a very different picture. If you’d like a custom market snapshot for your zip code, waterfront vs. non-waterfront, or a specific price range, we’re happy to provide one.

Sources & Data References

All data is derived from publicly available MLS-reported statistics and national mortgage data:

Florida Realtors® Market Data (County & MSA Reports):

https://www.floridarealtors.org/tools-research/research/market-data
Stellar MLS (Tampa Bay Regional MLS):

https://www.stellarmls.com
Freddie Mac – Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS):

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
U.S. Census / Regional Housing Context:

https://www.census.gov/housing